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In addition to its role as a forum in which researcher practitioners network and explore new methodologies, the S. I. R. seeks to bring to its Members and to the industry the timely, pertinent, thought provoking results of ongoing research. Some of this research may be conducted by the Society or by its individual or corporate Members. Other material linked here has been kindly made available by partnering organizations.
If you or your organization has a research report or similar information you believe will be of interest to the Members of the Society, or if there is other content you would recommend to be included on this page, please bring it to the attention of the Society's Vice President - Research.
New content for this page is subject to review by the Vice President - Research and the Research Committee.
If you are a Member of the Society of Insurance Research looking for information on a specific topic, please remember to also check the past conference presentations and the skills matrix directory of Members in the Members Only Section.
Select a topic from the menu on the left.
Items are shown in the order they were posted, with the most recent additions nearer the top of the page.
January 2010 Commercial P&C Insurance Buyers' Survey
“Pricing for commercial P&C insurance is expected to remain flat in early 2010, mostly in line with expectations. However, the number of rate decreases outpaced increases. Also, leading indicators such as the ease of the renewal process and buyer’s expectations confirm our view that the P&C market is likely to soften further as the financial crisis eases…”
See the full report.
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LMC Capital's "Insurance Industry Spotlight"
LMC Capital is a boutique investment banking firm focused exclusively on the insurance industry. The company provides a wide range of investment banking services regionally, nationally, and internationally for insurance companies and brokerages as well as regulatory advisory services for state insurance departments. LMC's investment banking services include full-service, professional advisory for mergers and acquisitions, capital raising, and valuations. The firm's aim is to adhere to the highest standard of ethics while providing unsurpassed advisory services to their clients.
LMC Capital's monthly publication, "Insurance Industry Spotlight", is designed to keep the firm's clients and interested insurance industry professionals informed about its activities by offering timely, independent research and information. In the Spotlight, they analyze selected mergers & acquisitions, capital raises, and ratings actions. It draws on LMC's extensive knowledge of ongoing activities and they offer it as a handy resource for those professionals who wish to stay abreast of the insurance M&A market.
"Insurance Industry Spotlight":
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TERRORISM INSURANCE
Status of Efforts by Policyholders to Obtain Coverage
Source: GAO, U.S. Government Accountability Office -- (September 15, 2008, 41 pages)
To assist Congress in their oversight of the insurance industry, the United States Government Accountability Office commissioned an audit in California, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York, and Washington, D.C., from January 2008 to September 2008. This report shares results of the audit detailing: (1) whether the availability of terrorism insurance for commercial properties is constrained in any geographic markets and the effect of any constraints on pricing and coverage amounts; (2) factors limiting insurers' willingness to provide coverage; and (3) advantages and disadvantages of some public policy options to increase the availability of property terrorism insurance.
See the highlights or the full report.
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TRENDS AND CHALLENGES IN THE P/C INSURANCE INDUSTRY:
Energy Markets at the Eye of the Economic Storm
Source: Robert Hartwig, Insurance Information Institute, New York, NY -- (August 12, 2008, 117 pages)
This presentation by Robert Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute, provides an overview of the property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry, with a specific focus on energy markets. Concerning the P/C industry in general, the presentation discusses profitability, underwriting trends, investments, premium growth, capacity and policyholders' surplus. The energy segment presents a review of the market, focusing on the implications of high energy prices, rising inflation, capacity trends, the weak economy, proposed changes in insurance/financial sector regulation and a catastrophe loss review focusing on the respite in the energy sector. The presentation also surveys some of the domestic and international regulatory, geopolitical and socioeconomic challenges facing energy producers and generators at a time of record global energy costs.
See the full report in PPT or PDF formats.
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OPEN ENROLLMENT AT A CROSSROADS:
New Employee Expectations, New Employer Opportunities
Source: MetLife Institutional Business -- (2008, 13 pages)
The purpose of this white paper is to help U.S. employers maximize the Open Enrollment experience for employees. As employees continue to bear more responsibility for funding and choosing their own benefits, they are starting to behave as more engaged consumers. They have a stronger interest in making smarter decisions than they did in years past-and they are asking for the information and tools that will help them choose wisely.
This paper by MetLife investigates best practices for Open Enrollment and how an employee's life stage can influence their preferences.
See the report.
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The Coastline at Risk: 2008 Update to the Estimated Insured Value of U.S. Coastal Properties
Source: AIR Worldwide, a member of the ISO family of companies (June 11, 2008, 5 pages)
AIR has undertaken a 2008 update of its compilation which was initially published in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. "While the scientific debate over the effects of global warming on the frequency and severity of hurricanes remains inconclusive, there is no question that the significant increase in the number and value of exposed properties...has and will continue to contribute to... hurricane losses for insurers." With that observation, this detail-rich work presents "estimates for the insured value of residential and commercial properties in coastal states (as well as coastal counties)", replete with tables representing the reports' findings. Member individuals and organizations of S.I.R. involved in Property Product Management, Claims, Underwriting, Property Pricing, and Property Reinsurance will find this an informative and useful resource.
See the full report.
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Impact of Gas Prices on Vehicle Miles Traveled; 1Q2008 Update
Source: Farmers Insurance Group (June 27, 2008, 26 pages)
This work, in PowerPoint presentation format, represents the most recent analysis taken from a proprietary economic demand model authored by farmers' Chief Economist Kevin Mabe. By controlling for other factors, "Mabe shows that consumers have responded to the higher gas prices especially since the gas price rally began in 2003." The farmers' press release accompanying the analysis notes "the VMT (vehicle miles traveled) reduction associated with higher gas prices has altered not only consumers' choice of transportation but also insurance losses. Mr. Mabe explains in his analysis: "We're estimating that auto losses from 2003-2008 are roughly $10 billion lower than otherwise would have been under a scenario of lower gas prices." This is a critical and extremely timely piece of econometric reporting which will be of interest to Personal & Commercial Auto Product Managers, Planning & Pricing professionals, and others involved in assessing environmental factors within our industry. Kevin and Farmers' have generously agreed to continue sharing their work with the Society, and we hope to have Kevin present his model and findings at some upcoming S.I.R. event.
See the full report.
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Rising Gasoline Prices & Auto Insurance Claim Frequency
Source: Diana Lee, Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (July 2008, 2 page summary)
In a corollary piece of work, Diana Lee, Assistant Vice President of Research with the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America, Past President of the Society of Insurance Research, and currently Vice President of Membership for the Society, addresses "questions of whether the increase in gasoline prices has caused motorists to drive less and whether driving fewer road miles has... caused auto insurance damage claims to fall." In Diana's analysis, "the answers are 'yes' to the first question and 'no' to the second." Using data available from the Fast Track Monitoring System (ISO), Diana examines the correlations between gas pricing, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and reported auto frequencies. Diana has graciously agreed to share this work, and the perspectives developed from the analysis of data, with fellow S.I.R. Members (see page two of the summary for her contact information). Our appreciation to Diana and the PCIAA for their generous support of the Society.
See the full report.
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July 2008 Commercial P&C Insurance Buyers' Survey
Source: Jay Gelb, Lehman Bros.' Global Equity Research (July 3, 2008, 37 pages)
In this very timely report of their proprietary survey work among P&C Commercial Lines buyers, Mr. Gelb notes "pricing for Commercial P&C insurance is declining across all lines. Policy terms and conditions appear looser, with most risk managers viewing the market as soft." While a number of sources routinely report their findings regarding trends in Commercial Lines pricing, underwriting and distribution, Jay notes that "our Commercial Insurance Buyers' Survey is distinctive." He clarifies: "First, we contact the risk managers, the end users of the product, rather than the insurers or brokers. As a result, we have actual examples of price changes rather than impressions of overall market conditions. Second, we have conducted telephone interviews with 75 risk managers twice each year since 2000, rather than have them fill out a survey and send it back to us. Third, we conduct the interviews ourselves instead of outsourcing the project to a third party. Our methodology provides consistency in the way we conduct the interviews, allows us to delve into the technical aspects of the property/casualty renewal process, and helps us capture risk managers' opinions on the state of the commercial P&C market." We consider this a compelling piece of proprietary research for anyone involved in Commercial Lines at any level.
See the full report.
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A Predictive Model to Identify Potentially Volatile Workers Compensation Insurance Claims
Author: Upendra Belhe, PhD & Natalie Mohanty, PhD
Abstract from Report:
The workers' compensation line of business has seen a steady increase in total incurred losses driven by increased claim severity. Severity is generally driven by volatile claims, typically defined as those with potentially unanticipated and long term medical outcomes. The ability to characterize and identify claim volatility can facilitate early intervention and targeted medical management. The end result is a better medical outcome for the injured worker, better claim management for the insured employer, and enhanced Claims Management for the carrier. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to mathematically capture the 'element of surprise' as a characteristic of volatility.
See the full report.
New Opportunities and Old Challenges Converge:
Fourth Annual Specialty Insurance Program Issuing Carrier Survey
Source: Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC
In this report, Guy Carpenter reviews the results of their most recent survey on the PA/MGA (Program Administrators and Managing General Agents) market. This 12 page report reviews opinions regarding the market size and dynamics, program appetite, operating platforms and more.
See the full report.
Residual Market Property Plans
From Markets of Last Resort to Markets of First Choice
Authors:
Robert Hartwig, PhD., CPCU, Insurance Information Institute
Claire Wilkinson, Vice President - Global Issues
Paper Overview:
A myriad of different programs in place across the United States provide insurance to high risk policyholders who may have difficulty obtaining coverage from the standard market. So called residual, shared or involuntary market programs make basic insurance coverage more readily available.
Today, property insurance from the residual market is provided by Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) Plans, Beach and Windstorm Plans, and two state-run insurance companies in Florida and Louisiana: Florida Citizens Property Insurance Company (CPIC) and Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (Louisiana Citizens).
In this 39 page paper, the authors explore the FAIR plans from their market size in the past to today and what is driving the growth.
This report has been made available to only III members but SIR has received special permission to share with our Members as well.
See the full report.
The Insurance Cycle and Credit Crunch: Impacts & Implications for the P/C Insurance Industry
Published by: Insurance Information Institute, presented by Dr. Robert P. Hartwig on March 18, 2008
This presentation provides a review of how the weakening economy and credit issues could impact the P/C industry. Dr. Hartwig also shares insight into what the federal government is doing to improve the economy and the implications to the insurance industry.
Download the presentation slides.
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A Firm Foundation: The Insurance Industry & Its Contributions to Society
Published by: Insurance Information Institute, presented by Dr. Robert P. Hartwig on April 10, 2008
This PowerPoint report, presented by Robert Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute, at St. John's University School of Risk Management, Insurance & Actuarial Science, focuses on how the insurance industry plays a key role in the U.S. economy and society as a whole. Sections highlight the insurers' role as claims payers, philanthropists, employers, taxpayers, investors, educators, promoters of public safety and rebuilders in times of peoples' greatest need, when they are confronted by catastrophe.
Download the presentation slides.
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Two Years Without Major Hurricanes: Implications for Insurers and Policyholders
Published by: Insurance Information Institute, presented by Dr. Robert P. Hartwig on April 4, 2008
This PowerPoint report, presented by Robert Hartwig at the 2008 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, Florida, reviews catastrophe losses and insurer financial performance. The presentation discusses the financial strength of the property/casualty insurance industry over the past decades and presents two hurricane risk case studies, one for Florida and the other for Texas. The report also focuses on the post Katrina pricing environment and claims paying capacity and provides a Katrina litigation update. In a discussion of flood insurance, the report notes that complacency is already setting in, with renewal rates of flood insurance policies in Gulf states dropping.
Download the presentation slides.
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Marketplace Realities - Spring 2009
Published by: Willis North America, Inc.
This report presents the findings from four different studies that examine "diverse, vital risk management/marketplace arenas". The four different studies include.
- Green Economics: Climate Change Risk and Opportunity
- Surety Market Update
- The Aviation Marketplace
- Umbrella & Excess Casualty: a Marketplace in Dynamic Transition Casualty
Each one of these reports takes an in-depth look into the performance of these markets and current trends/developments.
See the complete report.
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U.S. Tort Liability Index: 2008 Report
Published by: Pacific Research Institute
This report provides a state-by-state ranking of tort costs and tort laws.
Read the newsletter.
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Long-Term Care: Hedging Your Bet (article on page 12)
Published by: Society of Actuaries, Risks and Rewards Newsletter, February, 2008; by Dawn Helwig, Rajesh Bhandula and Nicola Barrett
This article, on page 12 of the newsletter, takes a look at why LTC sales have not "exploded".
Read the newsletter.
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U.S. Insurance Market, 2008
Published by: Marsh
As described in the publishers' note, this report provides an overview of 2007 experience in the Property & Casualty insurance market for both major and specialty lines. Additionally, the report shares insight from brokers and agents working with Marsh as to what may be in store for 2008.
See the U.S. Insurance Market report.
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Casualty Cost of Risk 2007: The Cost of Doing Business
Published by: Marsh
This report focuses on the "three most commonly purchased lines of primary casualty insurance: workers compensation, general liability, and auto liability." It is intended to provide readers with benchmarking data on the cost of risk (per $1,000 of revenue) from the Marsh proprietary database of "bound insurance placements completed during 2006".
See the Casualty Cost of Risk report.
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2007 Auto Insurance Pricing Report
Published by: Insurance.com
An article by Insurance.com reviews rate trends based on data from over 1.4 million auto insurance consumers. In addition to reviewing aggregate results, this article also reviews growth and average prices by states.
See the Insurance.com article.
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2008 Reinsurance Market Review: Near Misses Call for Caution
Published by: Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC
The expanded report covers renewals trends across various lines, including property, casualty, life, accident and health, retrocession and marine, as well as by geographical areas. According to a press release announcing the release of the report: "The Guy Carpenter World ROL Index found reinsurance prices down approximately 9 percent on average worldwide, driven by excess supply and fueled by a combination of strong profits and low losses. Although the frequency of catastrophes in 2007 was high, the number of 'near misses' led to a lack of large catastrophe losses and a subsequent softening of the market."
See the Guy Carpenter report.
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Frequency of Deer-Vehicle Collisions
Published by: State Farm Insurance
During the 4th Quarter of 2007, State Farm released a map of the U.S. detailing which states had the highest rate of vehicle collisions with deer. The estimates were calculated by using State Farm's deer claim data from the last half of 2006 and the first half of 2007 and motor vehicle registration counts by state from the Federal Highway Administration. See the State Farm data presented as a map or in a chart.
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2008 Forecast: A New Year of Obstacles, Opportunities
Published by: LOMA
OMA/Resource recently invited insurance industry leaders to share their thoughts about what awaits the industry in 2008, and what companies can do to best prepare for the challenges that lie ahead. The following industry leaders provided their insight into areas such as sales, regulation, technology, customer service, and profitability:
- Lawrence J. Arth, CFA, chairman and CEO of the UNIFI Companies
- William F. Glavin, Jr., co-COO of Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co. and executive vice president and head of MassMutual's U.S. Insurance Group
- Mark A. Hug, vice president and chief marketing officer of Prudential Financial's individual life insurance business
- Al Meyer, CLU, ChFC, executive vice president of American Family Mutual Insurance
- George S. Mohacsi, FLMI, president and CEO of Foresters, a fraternal benefits society
- Susan D. Waring, CLU, ChFC, executive vice president and CAO for State Farm Life Insurance Co. and vice president for State Farm Health;
- John W. Wells, FLMI, CPA, CLU, ACS, senior vice president of operations at Bankers Life & Casualty
- Lizabeth H. Zlatkus, president of international wealth management and group benefits for Hartford Life, Inc
Read the full article from LOMA.
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To Your Health: Diagnosing the State Of Health Care & the Global Private Medical Insurance Industry
Published by: Swiss Re Sigma
This report, published in the 4th Quarter of 2007, takes a detailed look at the state of health care in the U.S. and other countries. A number of different metrics are reviewed, such as the trend in health care expenditures versus GDP. How do expenditures in the U.S. compare to other countries? What are the significant challenges impacting the health care industry?
See the Swiss Re report
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MetLife's Mature Market Institute
Demographic Profile: Aging Baby Boomers
We are all aware that baby boomers represent a large share of the U.S. population. Some would even argue that they also have the strongest buying power. Companies are taking a great interest in tracking this group..MetLife is no exception. The Demographical Profile: Baby Boomers was released by MetLife's Mature Market Institute. The information contained in this report will provide readers with the latest review of who baby boomers are, where are the greatest concentration, what are their annual expenditures, and much more. (Demographic Profile)
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Lehman Brothers Global Equity Research
Gelb's P&C Perspectives: P&C Subprime Update
In a recent report released by Lehman Brothers, Jay Gelb analyzes the sub-prime investment exposure for the property-casualty insurers covered by Lehman. The report looks at different scenarios of potential impact of "writing down the value of sub prime investments" on book value. Concerns regarding sub prime investing activity (by insurers) is the "other side of the coin" from the bank and investment house lending and leveraging of sub prime instruments. For both sides of the financial services sector, sub prime has been a significant issue of confidence and belief with investors and the investment community. While perhaps a bit more technical than some of the research we're accustomed to reviewing, it is a fascinating insight into the data calculation and hypothesis testing that professionals, such as Mr. Gelb, engage in every day as he and other members of the community work to understand and communicate the workings of our business. (Subprime Update)
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Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development
RANKING PORT CITIES WITH HIGH EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE EXTREMES
EXPOSURE ESTIMATES
ENVIRONMENT WORKING PAPERS No. 1
The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (a France based organization) co-authored a report highlighting the impact of climate change on coastal communities. This study, released in 2007, includes international cities as well as key impact cities in the US. The study ranks about 130 port cities with the highest exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes. In total, the study finds that around 150 million people could be impacted, compared to just 40 million today.
Click here to access the article and to obtain a hard link to the survey results.
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SIR Membership Survey
From time to time, the Society surveys our Members regarding issues we consider of widespread interest to insurance researchers. A survey of SIR Members conducted during the summer of 2006 indicated that, while a majority are involved in Property & Casualty insurance, a significant percentage work with Life & Health business. Seventy per cent of respondents reported that Competitive Intelligence (CI) is at least part of their job responsibility, and nearly half reported involvement in Market Research. While both CI and other research practitioners identified limited budget or limited resources as their leading challenge, the great majority reported their budget had either remained the same or increased in 2006. See the linked summary report for other insights into the composition and perspectives of the SIR Membership.
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Conning Research
Conning Research & Consulting, a highly respected and nationally-known provider of insurance research, offers a growing array of specialty information products, insights, and analyses of key issues confronting the insurance industry. The Society of Insurance Research gratefully acknowledges Conning's permission to post the linked issue of "The Conning Commentary", which includes two excellent articles prepared in part from information presented at the Society's 2006 Spring Workshops in Philadelphia.
The article "The economic and insurance impact of an avian flu pandemic" was prepared by Terance B. Martin, FSA, MAAA and the article "Competitive Intelligence: A new way to better decision-making" was written by Clint Harris, CPCU, ARP, ARe. Both are employed by Conning Research & Development, Inc., and both participated in the SIR workshop on "Insurance Hot Topics / Emerging Issues".
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